Who benefits from Blue Growth? Heterogeneities in Income Distribution in the Marine and Coastal Aquaculture Sector in the Western Indian Ocean Region

The Blue Economy is widely promoted as a pathway to inclusive coastal development, yet whether mariculture delivers income equitably remains poorly understood in the Western Indian Ocean region. This study examines who benefits from mariculture in coastal Kenya, using mixed-methods data from 603 fish and seaweed farming households across Kwale, Kilifi, and Mombasa counties, complemented by focus group discussions, in-depth interviews, and key informant interviews. A two-stage analytical approach first modelled the likelihood of a household obtaining any mariculture income, using Firth’s penalized logistic regression to address complete and quasi-separation in group-level outcomes, before modelling the determinants of income amount among households that did earn some, using GLM models. Results show that whether a household obtains any income at all is mainly driven by the mariculture group they belong to, rather than individual characteristics; but these determine the amount of income derived. Male farmers, those with higher formal education, household labour, wealthier households, and those closer to farms obtained significantly higher returns. These findings challenge assumptions that mariculture participation automatically generates inclusive benefits and suggest that Blue Economy must address institutional and gendered structural barriers, not participation alone, to achieve equitable coastal development outcomes.