Sustainability of community waterpans in Kenyan drylands: a Social–Ecological–Technological Systems (SETS) analysis of Narok County, Kenya

Community waterpans are critical water security infrastructure in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), yet their long-term sustainability is poorly understood and rarely assessed as an integrated social, ecological, and technological system. This study applies a Social–Ecological–Technological Systems (SETS) framework to analyse how governance structures, biophysical conditions, and infrastructure design jointly shape waterpan sustainability in Narok County, Kenya. The objectives are to assess social governance, ecological and biophysical condition, and technological design of waterpans separately, and to evaluate their combined influence on long-term sustainability outcomes. A mixed-methods cross-sectional design combines structured household surveys (n = 400, multistage sampling), focus group discussions, key informant interviews, biophysical field assessments, and GPS/GIS mapping across waterpans in Narok County. Quantitative data are analysed using ANOVA and multiple linear regression; qualitative data are thematically analysed and integrated. A composite sustainability index is constructed to quantify and compare overall waterpan performance across the three SETS subsystems. The study expects to reveal that sustainability outcomes cluster around governance and maintenance quality rather than ecological condition alone, and that spatially distinct waterpan performance types can be identified through the composite index. These findings will provide the first SETS-based sustainability assessment of community waterpans in Kenyan ASALs, offering an evidence base for integrated water management policies that address governance, infrastructure, and ecological sustainability simultaneously.