Blue Carbon and Mangrove Loss in Mozambique

Mangrove ecosystems are among the most carbon-rich ecosystems globally and play a critical role in climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and coastal protection. Mozambique hosts the second-largest mangrove extent in Africa; however, increasing anthropogenic pressures and extreme climatic events have accelerated mangrove degradation over the last decade. This study assessed changes in mangrove carbon stocks between 2013 and 2023 and evaluated their implications for national greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting and blue carbon policy.

Mangrove cover change data were obtained from national-scale remote sensing analyses based on Landsat and Sentinel imagery. These data were integrated with field-derived carbon stock estimates collected in Saco Bay, Inhaca Island, following standardized protocols for mangrove carbon assessment. Provincial carbon densities from published studies and field measurements were combined with mangrove cover dynamics to estimate changes in ecosystem carbon stocks across Mozambique.

Results indicate that national mangrove extent declined from 2,114.3 km² in 2013 to 1,738.6 km² in 2023, representing a net loss of approximately 375.7 km². The largest reductions occurred in Zambézia and Sofala provinces, while localized gains were observed in Gaza and Cabo Delgado. These changes resulted in an estimated loss of 15.67 million Mg C from mangrove ecosystems during the study period. The magnitude of carbon loss highlights the importance of mangrove conservation for achieving national climate mitigation objectives and maintaining ecosystem services that support coastal communities.

The findings demonstrate that continued mangrove degradation may significantly undermine Mozambique’s climate commitments and blue carbon potential. Strengthening mangrove protection, expanding restoration initiatives, improving carbon monitoring systems, and integrating blue carbon into national climate policies are essential to enhance resilience and support future Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).