Growth Dynamics and Random Forest Modeling of Key Commercial Fishes in Lake Turkana, Kenya

Lake Turkana supports one of the most productive inland fisheries in East Africa, dominated by key commercial species including Nile Tilapia, Nile Perch, Catfish, Alestes baremoze, and Bagrus bayad. This study integrates fish stock assessment, growth analysis, feeding ecology, catch per unit effort (CPUE), and Random Forest models to evaluate population dynamics and exploitation patterns. Length-frequency data, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, stomach content analysis, and fisheries-dependent and Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute’s experimental fishery surveys CPUE data were analyzed across major landing sites in Lake Turkana. Results show strong interspecies variability in growth and exploitation, with Nile perch exhibiting the highest asymptotic length (L∞ = 118 cm), while tilapia showed the fastest growth (K = 0.62 yr⁻¹). Random Forest analysis identified fishing effort, prey availability, and environmental variables (temperature, dissolved oxygen) as key predictors of abundance across species. Catfish and Bagrus bayad showed elevated exploitation rates (E > 0.52), while Alestes baremoze exhibited increasing fishing mortality trends. CPUE (P < 0.05) varied spatially, with higher productivity zones being recorded in central basin landing sites. The integration of ecological and Random Forest Models approaches demonstrates improved predictive capacity for multispecies fisheries management and supports ecosystem-based management strategies for sustainable utilization of Lake Turkana fisheries resources under increasing anthropogenic pressure.